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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd